Top play bottom in Group A in game week five and it would be an optimistic Spaniard to see anything other than a home win.
Bayern are best-priced at just 1/5 (Boylesports – free betting £40) and given their last group match is away against Man City they will be keen to win here and thus seal their passage as group winners.
Villarreal are huge at 18/1 with bet365 (free bets £200) but even at that price it is hard to make a case for them. They have lost all four of their Champions League matches thus far and have only a faint hope of claiming third in the group. In their domestic league they are languishing in 10th place with just 14 points from 12 games and a goal difference of -7.
The Spanish side are struggling with injuries, most notably with star striker Giuseppe Rossi out for six months with a knee ligament injury. The Italian, who was linked with a move to Barcelona in the summer, is by far Villarreal’s most potent attacker and without him they will struggle. Fellow striker Nilmar is also out and we fail to see how the team can score against their hosts.
In contrast, in Mario Gomez Bayern Munich have the leading scorer in the competition and he is just 5/2 with Coral to open the scoring. In the Bundesliga they have been ruthless at home against the lesser clubs, conceding no goals and scoring 23 in the five games they have won.
Whilst they have lost two at home, those were against the teams placed second and third and on current form their Champions League guests are not in that class. If Villarreal are at all cavalier then Gomez and co could easily rack up the goals and that’s exactly what we expect.