Denmark v Japan, Thursday 24th June, 7.30pm
The Danes might come to regret conceding a late second goal against the Netherlands in Johannesburg, something which has ultimately given them a worse goal difference than Japan (who lost 1-0 against the Dutch). It means that Morten Olsen’s team have to beat the Blue Samurai to go through to the last sixteen stage, where they will probably face Paraguay. The bookies give them a fairly strong chance of managing victory, with bet365 offering a best price 5/4, although the main concern is that the defence have been making too many mistakes.
Daniel Agger’s own goal against Holland was highly avoidable and Thomas Sorenson nearly cost his team dear when a muffed clearance saw Samuel Eto’o hit the post in Pretoria. Thankfully, Denmark lived to tell the tale, although they can ill-afford to fall behind against a Japan team who are resolute in defence. We shouldn’t forget that Takeshi Okada’s team were beating England in a friendly until conceding two own goals and they are available at 11/4 (Ladbrokes) to land the spoils in this match.
However, considering that Japan only need a draw to go through; Ladbrokes’ 12/5 could be a more sensible wager, especially as the team will assemble men behind the ball from an early juncture. The manager will focus his team on keeping the scoreline level until the half-time break and Coral’s 11/10 that the match is all square at the interval is probably too big a price.
After all, Denmark are heavily reliant on Nicklas Bendtner to make things happen in attack and the Arsenal forward’s movement help make all the difference against the Indomitable Lions. William Hill offer 13/2 that he breaks the deadlock against the Japanese, while Liverpool centre half Daniel Agger has got a tremendous shot on him and rates at a decent outside bet at 25/1 (Sky Bet).
We shouldn’t expect Japan to be too ambitious going forward in this match, although Keisuke Honda (10/1 totesport) is a quality player for CSKA Moscow and did score the only goal of the match against Cameroon. This is a match where Under 2.5 Goals looks like the bet to have, even at the slightly prohibitive odds of 8/13 (Paddy Power). The bookmakers are wary of offering big odds on No Goalscorer, with Ladbrokes laying 7/1 that both teams draw a blank and a Danish victory is likely to be a 1-0 scoreline (11/2 Sporting Bet).
