Joachim Low’s team beat Greece in a one-sided quarter final on Friday night, giving them nearly a week to prepare for a semi-final encounter and we should also remember that the manager had the luxury of resting Mario Gomez, Lukas Podolski and Thomas Muller last time around.
Perhaps the trio will be reinstated for the semi-final in Warsaw and the best odds about Germany are 20/21 (BetVictor free bets) which is practically even money and doesn’t seem like a bad shout when you consider it’s four games played and four games won.
Italy are also unbeaten at Euro 2012 which is clearly a credible achievement although three of their four games ended in a draw and the only team they have beaten is a Republic of Ireland side that were already bombing out of the tournament.
The Azzurri must have been feeling the pinch on Tuesday following 120 minutes of football and a penalty shoot-out against England although Cesare Prandelli’s side did have the ball for most of the match and some might consider the 4/1 (Stan James) about Italy to be a little too big.
The problem for Italy appears to be scoring in open play, with Antonio Di Natale’s goal against Spain the only occasion where they have found the net aside from set pieces, although Prandelli looks set to keep the faith with Mario Balotelli and Antonio Cassano in attack.
Balotelli is clearly not short of confidence and can produce the type of unpredictability that might unsettle the German defence, with the Manchester City striker a 10/1 chance to find the net first in this game which would really open things up.
Andrea Pirlo earned rave reviews for his performance against England and can be backed at 18/1 (bet365 £200 free bets) to break the deadlock which seems like a big price when you consider the 35-year-old’s prowess from free kicks directly outside of the area.
Even so, this is a German side that have scored nine goals at Euro 2012 so far and it’s easy to see them filling their boots again, especially if midfielder Bastian Schweinstiger is passed fit for the match. He and Mesut Ozil can potentially run the show in the middle of the park and Italy certainly won’t dominate possession as they did against the English.
Gomez may well be recalled to the starting line-up having been surprisingly benched for the Greece match and he’s an 11/2 shot to score the first goal, while Andre Schurrle might have done enough to retain his place and can be backed at 10/1 to score first.
Italy might simply run out of legs for this game and a 3-0 win in Germany’s favour looks enticing at 18/1 with the Azzurri having to come out of their shell should their opponents take an early lead.