Mexico v Uruguay, Tuesday 22nd June, 3pm
We don’t need a conspiracy theorist to see what might happen in Cape Town on Tuesday afternoon. After two Group A matches, both of these teams have secured four points and a point apiece at the Greenpoint Stadium would be enough to put them through to the last sixteen. Therefore, the bookmakers are expecting a cagey encounter and the draw price has gone below even money, with bet365 making it a 4/5 chance that the game ends all square.
While the teams will clearly be doing more than just passing the ball around the centre circle, there might be a lack of ambition on display, especially from Uruguay who sit top of the section. It’s for this reason that No Goalscorer is priced at 4/1 (Boylesports), odds that we would normally expect to be in the region of double that price. Unsurprisingly, the Under 2.5 Goals quote is shorter than it’s been for the whole tournament, with Paddy Power offering 3/10.
Nevertheless, Mexico might not like the idea of playing Argentina in the last sixteen, something that will almost certainly be the case if the match ends in a draw. El Tri produced one of the best World Cup performances to date when beating France and Javier Aguirre’s team could be worth a small bet at odds of 3/1 (Ladbrokes). They were unlucky not to beat hosts South Africa and their excellent passing style of football could prove too strong for their south American opponents.
They seem a far more attractive proposition than Uruguay, who relied on safety-first tactics to get a draw against France in their opening game, although La Celeste can be backed at odds of 10/3 (Sporting Bet) to win in Cape Town and make doubly sure that they play Greece or South Korea in the final match. Diego Forlan has been excellent for Oscar Tabarez’s team and can be backed at 11/2 (bet365) to open the scoring as he did against Bafana Bafana in Pretoria.
For Mexico, the manager will have to decide whether to start with youngster Javier Hernandez, who broke the deadlock against Les Bleus with an excellently-taken finish. The 22-year-old has an excellent strike rate for his country and can be backed at 7/1 (Boylesports) to potentially send his team to the top of Group A. There could also be some value in backing Mexica left-back Carlos Salcido (40/1 Paddy Power) to score the opening goal of the game, especially if the left-back continues to bomb forward like he did against the French.
