St Leger

St Ledger 2010 Result

St Leger Horse	Jockey	Pre Race Odds	Bookmaker	Free Bet
Rewilding	Frankie Dettori	5/4		£200
Dandino	Paul Mulrennan	9/1		£200
Midas Touch	C’ODonoghue	13/2		£200
Snow Fairy	Eddie Ahern	9/1		£200
Artic Cosmos	William Buick	12/1		£200
Joshua Tree	Jamie Spencer	11/1		£200
Ted Spread	Darryll Holland	22/1		£25
Total Command	Ryan Moore	40/1		£25
Theology	Paul Hanagan	40/1		£200
Corsica	Joe Fanning	40/1		£200

The final Classic of the season, the St. Leger, is the highlight of Saturday’s card at Doncaster and has attracted a dozen high quality staying 3-year-olds from both sides of the Irish Sea.

Midas Touch (10/1 with Bet365 and Joshua Tree (11/1 with Bet365 finished second and third, respectively, in the Group 2 Great Voltigeur Stakes over 1 mile 4 furlongs at York last month. They were beaten 4 lengths and 6½ lengths, respectively, by the winner Rewilding (6/4 generally) on that occasion, but as all three are untried over 1 mile 6 furlongs – and none has a pedigree that is laden with stamina – there must be a chance that one or the other of the O’Brien entries can turn the form around. That said, Rewilding was a very ready winner at York, quickening clear at the furlong pole and showing no signs of stopping, so the current prices look about right.

Impressive as Rewilding was at York, the closest the son of Tiger Hill has come to winning a Group 1 contest was a 7½-length third to Workforce in the Epsom Derby. That form has not worked out, with Workforce finishing only fifth of six, beaten 17 lengths by Harbinger, in the King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes at Ascot on his only subsequent start. On balance, Rewilding has something to prove with regard to class and distance and owes his position at the head of the market to the lack of strength in depth in this race rather than any outstanding form claims.

The only Group 1 winner in the race is Ed Dunlop’s filly Snow Fairy (9/1 with Bet365  who won the Epsom Oaks under a fine ride from Ryan Moore in June and was hugely impressive when winning the Irish equivalent by 8 lengths at the Curragh a month later. She was beaten 3 lengths by Midday in the Yorkshire Oaks on her most recent start last month, but that form still reads well in the context of this race. Ed Dunlop expressed concern that the 25mm of rain that fell on Town Moor on Monday night may place more emphasis on her stamina, but her win at the Curragh came on “good to yielding” going and with if and buts about many of the other runners she looks fantastic each-way value.

Working through the field in alphabetical order, Arctic Cosmos (11/1 with Ladbrokes has no Group wins to his name despite placings at Group 3 and Group 2 level and needs to improve to win this, Corsica (66/1 with Ladbrokes) won the Group 3 Bahrain Trophy over 1 mile 5 furlongs at Newmarket in July but appears held by Artic Cosmos and Dandino and Dandino himself looks short of Group 1 class.

That leaves Ted Spread (22/1 Paddy Power), who was beaten fully 12½ lengths by Rewilding in the Great Voltigeur, Theology (40/1 with Stan James, who has only a maiden win to his name and cannot really be entertained at Group 1 level and Total Command (40/1 generally), who has powerful connections but finished miles behind Rewilding in the Great Voltigeur.

The latter is trained by Sir Michael Stoute, who has a line to Rewilding through Workforce and Harbinger and it is interesting to see him willing to take on a horse that beat his charge by 36 lengths last time again. That said, this is the St. Leger and he may well be tilting at windmills.

On reflection, the St. Leger this year appears to be a two-horse race, with the proven Group 1 winner Snow Fairy preferred to favourite Rewilding. Ed Dunlop’s comments about the going on Saturday tempers enthusiasm slightly, but fine, sunny weather is forecast on Town Moor between now and then, so Snow Fairy’s current price makes more than a little appeal for win or each-way purposes. A reversed forecast with Rewilding could also pay dividends.